Daniel Hruska Ua heluhelu paha ka nui o ʻoukou i ka nūhou i kēia mau lā e pili ana i ka emi wikiwiki ʻana o nā kauoha no nā ʻāpana (nā hōʻike nui) no ka hana iPhone. No kēia ʻoiaʻiʻo mākou iā ʻoe ua hōʻike lākou pela kakou. Ua ala koke nā manaʻo e hoʻomākaukau ana ʻo Apple e hoʻolauna i kahi pōʻai hana ʻeono mahina, ʻo ia hoʻi ka hana ʻana o kahi mea pani i ke ʻano o ka hanauna hou o ke kelepona Apple (e hoʻopiha i ka inoa iā ʻoe iho). Ua hoʻomaka kekahi mau kāula e hoʻolaha i nā lono e pili ana i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka hopena no Apple. Akā, e nānā kākou i kekahi mau helu a ʻike i ke ʻano maoli o nā mea.
Ua hoʻomaka ʻia ma ke kikowaena Iapana Nikkei. Ua hopu ka Wall Street Journal i kēia ʻike i hōʻoia ʻole ʻia me ka makemake: "Ua hāʻule nā kauoha a Apple no nā hōʻike iPhone 5 ma kahi o ka hapalua i hoʻohālikelike ʻia i ka hapaha kālā mua (ʻOkakopa a Dekemaba)." ʻO ka ʻike Nikkei, ʻo ia: "Ua noi ʻo Apple iā Iapana Display, Sharp a me LG Display e ʻoki i nā moku LCD panel ma kahi o ka hapalua mai ka 65 miliona i hoʻolālā ʻia no ka manawa o Ianuali-Malaki, e like me ka poʻe i kamaʻāina i ke kūlana." ʻO ka helu 65 miliona. he mea lapuwale? E noʻonoʻo iki kākou i kēia mau helu.
No ka hapaha hope loa i hoʻopau ʻia, kūʻai ʻia nā manaʻo no nā iPhones ma waena o 43-63 miliona mau ʻāpana. E ʻoi aku ka naʻauao ke hoʻopuka ʻo Apple i kahi hoʻokuʻu paʻi. Eia naʻe, pono e hoʻomaopopo ʻia ʻo ka hoʻohui ʻana i ka iPhone 5, aia nō ʻelua mau hanauna ma mua i ke kūʻai aku, ʻo ia hoʻi ka iPhone 4 a me 4S. ʻO ke kumukūʻai maʻamau o nā ʻāpana āpau i kūʻai ʻia e like me ka 49 miliona, ʻo nā manaʻo manaʻo maikaʻi loa e hoʻohui i 5 miliona o kēia nui i ka iPhone 40. No ka hoʻohana ʻana o ka iPod touch lima i ka hōʻike like, e hoʻonui i kēlā helu i 45 miliona.
I kēlā me kēia makahiki mai ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka iPhone mua, ua ʻike ʻo Apple i ka emi ʻana o ke kūʻai aku, maʻamau i ka hapaha kālā ʻelua (Q2), ʻo ia - ka manaʻo ʻole - ʻo kēia manawa. No ka laʻana, ke hāʻule wikiwiki nei ke kūʻai ʻana o ka iPod touch i kēia mau mahina. Ke koi ikaika nei ka iPhone 5, akā inā makemake ʻo Apple i 1 miliona mau pale ma Q45, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka liʻiliʻi ma Q2. Akā, pehea ka nui? E kāhea kākou he 40 miliona. Akā inā kauoha ʻo Apple i nā hōʻike hou aku i ka Q1 e hōʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole pono ia e hana i ka 40 miliona piha. E koi ʻo ia i kahi 30-35 miliona mai kāna mau mea hoʻolako no ke koena o ka hoʻoilo. ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole mākou ʻike i kēia mau mea a pau, ke kuhi wale nei mākou. Eia naʻe, ʻaʻole ʻike ʻia kēia a ʻaʻole hoʻi i ʻike ʻia ka server Nikkei a i ʻole nā punawai inoa ʻole.
Akā ʻaʻole kekahi o ia mea i hoʻōki i ka WSJ mai ka noʻonoʻo pono ʻana ma ka ʻaoʻao mua - ʻewalu mau lā ma mua o nā hopena kālā o Apple, e hoʻokuʻu ʻia ma Ianuali 23rd. Ma nā moʻolelo a pau, ʻo ka makahiki i hala aku nei ʻo ia ke kiʻekiʻe o ka hui Cupertino, ka mea i nalowale i kāna hōʻailona o ka maikaʻi. Wahi a nā ʻatikala like, ʻo ia ke ʻano o ke kūlana ma Apple. Eia nō naʻe, ʻōlelo ʻia nā helu i ka wā i kūʻai aku ai ka hui i 1 miliona iPhones i ka Q37 i ka makahiki i hala. ʻO nā kuhi haʻahaʻa loa no kēia makahiki he 20% ka piʻi ʻana ma mua o ka makahiki i hala. (Ma ka 50 miliona he 35%.)
ʻO nā lono o ka hoʻemi ʻana i ka nui o ka hāʻawi ʻana i nā ʻāpana i lawe mai i nā helu hoihoi e pili ana i ka hoʻokūkū. Ua lohe mua mākou i ka "nūhou maikaʻi" mai Finland's Nokia, nāna i kūʻai aku i 1 miliona mau kelepona Lumia ma Q4,4. Hele ʻo ia me ka ʻōlelo ʻole ua ʻoki ʻo ia i ka 2% wale nō o kāna māhele mākeke a hoʻonui i kāna kūʻai ʻana ma o ka hoʻemi nui ʻana i nā kumukūʻai kūʻai. Hoʻomaka ia ma $99, ʻo ia ka hapalua o nā kelepona hoʻokūkū e hoʻomaka ai. No laila he nūhou maikaʻi kēia e like me ka Nokia. He nui nā mea e hōʻike ʻia no nā hopena like ʻole e hana hou ʻia.
Ua hauʻoli nui ʻo Cnet e pili ana i ka hoʻolaha ʻana o Samsung i 100 miliona mau kelepona Galaxy S i kūʻai ʻia. Ua koi ʻia nā kelepona "Ua hiki ke kūʻai aku ʻo Flagship Galaxy S3 i 30 miliona mau ʻāpana i nā mahina 5, 40 miliona mau ʻāpana i 7 mau mahina, me ka awelika kūʻai aku i kēlā me kēia lā 190 mau ʻāpana. "Nā helu nani, pono ʻoe e noʻonoʻo. Akā e makaʻala, hiki ke hana ʻia kekahi mea ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi me lākou - e hoʻokomo iā lākou i loko o ka pōʻaiapili o ka hapaha i hala. E kūʻai aku ʻo Apple i nā iPhone 5 i loko e like me Samsung i kūʻai aku ai i ka Galaxy S3 i 7 mau mahina! Ke hoʻomaka nei nā "Experts" e hoʻopili i nā pilikia iā Apple me ka ʻike ʻole i nā helu kikoʻī.
ʻOiaʻiʻo, hāʻawi ʻo Samsung i ke kumu hoʻohālike Galaxy S2 mua no ke kūʻai. Wahi a Cnet, me 40 miliona mau ʻāpana i kūʻai ʻia i loko o 20 mau mahina, he pā palekana ia. No laila, loaʻa iā mākou he 2 miliona i kēlā me kēia mahina no kēia kumu hoʻohālike me 17 miliona Galaxy S3s, e like me Samsung i kūʻai ʻia ma Q4. Eia hou, inā mākou e hoʻohālikelike i nā hanauna ʻelua i hala ma Q1, kūʻai aku ʻo Apple i kahi 35-45 miliona iPhones, Samsung ma kahi o 23 miliona. He ʻoiaʻiʻo inā e helu mākou i nā kelepona Samsung āpau, ʻoi aku ia ma mua o Apple. Akā inā mākou e nānā i ka loaʻa kālā, e hoʻomau ʻo Apple i ka lanakila ʻana iā Samsung a me nā mea hoʻokūkū ʻē aʻe ma laila. A ʻo ia nā helu koʻikoʻi.
ʻAe, ke hāʻule nei nā kūʻai iPhone 5 a e hoʻomau i ka hāʻule ʻana i ka hala ʻana o ka nalu mua o nā kūʻai ʻana a aia ka Kalikimaka ma luna o mākou. I kēia manawa pono mākou e kali no ka pule aʻe e hāʻawi mai ʻo Apple iā mākou i ka ʻikepili maoli a pololei. E like me ka mea maʻamau i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, hiki iā mākou ke manaʻo i ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i nā kūʻai a me nā loaʻa kālā.
Manaʻo wau he ala maopopo loa kēia e hoʻohaʻahaʻa i ke kumukūʻai o ka apple ma mua pono o ka hoʻolaha ʻana i nā hopena moʻolelo, a ma hope e lele ai ke kumukūʻai. ʻO ka mea kūʻai i kēia manawa no $500 e kūʻai aku ʻo ia no $600 i ka mahina.
ʻOiaʻiʻo, he pāʻani wale nō ia e hoʻohaʻahaʻa i ke kumukūʻai i hiki ai i kekahi ke hana hewa (ke manaʻo nei au i ka nui o nā ʻāpana o Apple i loaʻa i nā mea nona ka WSJ) i ʻole mākou e haohao i ka mea a Apple e kāhāhā ai iā mākou :-)
Pololei, ʻaʻohe mea ʻē aʻe ka manaʻo holoʻokoʻa a ʻo ia ka hoʻemi ʻana i ke kumu kūʻai ma mua o ka hoʻolaha ʻana i nā loaʻa kālā. A hiki lākou i 600 ma ka hopena o Ianuali :-)
Ua hanu au i ka ʻoluʻolu... ʻaneʻane ʻaʻole au i hiamoe no ia...
ʻO ka ʻatikala maikaʻi loa, pono wau e heluhelu i kekahi mea e like me kēia ma hope o nā nūhou hoʻoweliweli pupule ma ka pūnaewele.
Ua kākau maikaʻi ʻia! Mahalo i nā helu a me nā helu.. ;)
ʻO ka ʻatikala maikaʻi loa, ua kākau kekahi i ke ʻano. Ua lawa au i kēlā mau "clairvoyants" nāna e wānana mau i ka hāʻule ʻana o Apple a hauʻoli i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo ua kūʻai ʻia kahi miliona Nexuses i hoʻokahi mahina, ʻoiai ua kūʻai aku ʻo Apple i ʻekolu mau iPads i nā lā ʻekolu ...
ʻO ka hoihoi, ua lawe kekahi i ka pilikia e hana. Aia ʻo Apple ma kahi kūlana ʻaʻole lākou i ʻike i ka mea e hiki mai ana me ka ʻole o Jobs a ʻaʻole lākou hilinaʻi nui iā ia e lawelawe. Eia kekahi, aia kekahi pūʻulu o nā naysayers, a pono ʻo Apple e hana me ia. ʻAʻole au lili iā Kuke. I kēia manawa, maikaʻi lākou. Pono ia e pani. A ʻo kēlā ʻāpana me ka ʻike wahaheʻe (inā e hōʻoia ʻia) e hāʻawi wau i kekahi mau nūpepa paʻa i ka lulu maikaʻi inā ʻo wau ʻo Kuke.
Me he mea lā ʻaʻole ʻoe i ʻike i kahi kikoʻī liʻiliʻi, ʻo ia hoʻi ua hoʻopau ʻia nā ʻaelike e pili ana i kekahi ʻano o ka manaʻolana, a ʻoiaʻiʻo nō hoʻi ʻaʻole ʻo Apple i ʻike a hiki i Dekemaba ʻaʻole ka Kalikimaka e hiki mai ana ma Malaki. e helu ana i ka hāʻule o ka noi. No laila, ʻo ka hōʻemi ʻana i nā kauoha ʻo ia ka mea, kūʻē i nā manaʻo, ke ulu nei ka mākeke ma mua o ka manaʻo o Apple. Akā ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo nā mea hoʻoponopono o ka ʻāpana WSJ he poʻe amateurs a ʻo ia ke kumu e wehewehe pono ʻia ai.
ʻOiaʻiʻo, me ka ʻole o ka ʻike ʻaʻole hiki ke loiloi, no ka noʻonoʻo wale ʻana, akā e like me kāu ʻōlelo ʻana ʻaʻole i ʻike kekahi a hana i ka hopena, pēlā ʻoe. Hiki iaʻu ke noʻonoʻo like. No ke aha i kauoha ai ʻo Apple i nā ʻāpana he nui, e like me kāu, "e ʻike pono"? Loaʻa iā lākou nā manaʻolana kiʻekiʻe a ʻaʻole hiki iā lākou ke koho e like me nā helu kūloko? ʻO 50% ka ʻokoʻa he nui. ʻAʻole i manaʻo ʻo Apple ʻaʻole maikaʻi ka Q e hiki mai ana, he mea hou paha lākou i ka mākeke a ʻaʻole maopopo i ke ʻano o ka pihi kūʻai? Ua ʻike wale lākou ma hope o ka pau ʻana o ka Q kahi i hoʻokomo ʻia ai ka IP5 + Kalikimaka i loko o ia mea e ʻoi aku ka hewa o ka Q aʻe? I koʻu manaʻo, ʻo ka ʻike e hele nei a puni ka honua i kēia manawa, ʻaʻole ia e pili ana i nā hopena e hiki iā mākou ke manaʻo i kēia manawa, e maikaʻi ana kēlā, akā e pili ana i ka mea e hiki mai ana, ʻo ia hoʻi ke kūʻai aku ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma ka Q ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma mua o nā kūʻai mua ma nā kūlana like, a i ʻole a IP hou, a i ʻole kekahi mea "manaʻo ʻole".
Akā e like me kaʻu i kākau ai, ke kuhi wale nei au.
ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ke uku mau nei ʻoe no ka ʻāpana i hāʻawi ʻia (hōʻike, a me nā mea ʻē aʻe) akā no ka mana hana i mālama ʻia e ka mea hoʻolako. Hoʻopili ʻia kēia i ke kumukūʻai o ka ʻāpana -> liʻiliʻi liʻiliʻi = ʻoi aku ka nui o nā ʻāpana, inā hāʻule ka hoʻohana ʻana ma lalo o ka mana hana i kauoha ʻia. He mea maʻalahi, pono e uku ʻia nā laina hana no kekahi mau ʻāpana. ʻAʻohe mea ma ko lākou noʻonoʻo pono e hoʻolālā e waiho i ka ʻumi hapahā o kā lākou hiki ke hana.
ʻO ka ASP (Average Selling Price) o nā kelepona Nokia he $204 i ka Q3/2012 a me $240 i ka Q4/2012. No laila i ka hapaha hope ua ulu nui. Ua paʻi ʻia kēia mau helu e Nokia. Ma waena o nā smartphones, ua helu pū ʻo Lumia me WP a me Symbians (i loaʻa kahi ASP a puni ka mea i ʻōlelo ʻia ma ka ʻatikala, he mau haneli kālā).